Avoid these five overvalued fantasy football players in 2024 (2024)

Every season, there's always a select few NFL players who are drafted way too high in fantasy football. Whether it be due to a strong reputation or the fact that they finished the previous season strong, some ADPs aren't the way they should be.

Now, this isn't to say you shouldn't draft these players in fantasy football, because if they fall in drafts, they could very well be worth drafting. But, they're currently being overvalued compared to other players that you can get around the same draft position. Save yourself the headache during the season if these guys underperform according to ADP, and take someone else instead.

Overvalued players can really hurt your team, because you're likely to take some of those players with premium draft picks. With premium draft picks, you're expecting a starter who can contribute at a really high level. That being said, you can't really afford to miss out on these premium draft picks.

So, avoid these five players in fantasy football at their current ADPs.

1 Brock Purdy - San Francisco 49ers

Purdy is being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor

Quarterback is an interesting position in fantasy football because most QBs are properly rated, but Brock Purdy is probably being drafted too high in fantasy drafts this year. Purdy was superb in 2023, finishing as the QB6. The problem is that it might be the best version of Purdy, especially if the San Francisco 49ers eventually trade away Brandon Aiyuk.

Purdy isn't incredibly overvalued, but several quarterbacks are being drafted after him that are worth drafting ahead of him. Purdy's fantasy value mainly comes from throwing over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns, but he doesn't project as that type of player. He also doesn't have much rushing ability to offset some of his passing statistics in 2023.

A fair way to look at Purdy is to look back at his 2022 performance and his 2023 playoff performance. He averaged over 18 fantasy PPG in 2022 and around 16.4 PPG in the playoffs this past year. The point is it's unlikely that he provides the high upside he's being drafted with. He's being drafted as the QB11, which is lower than he finished last season, but it still seems like it's on the higher side of 2024 possibilities.

Purdy is being drafted after Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Kirk Cousins, who have similar, if not more, upside than Purdy. With the amount of depth at the quarterback position in fantasy football drafts, you're better off passing on Purdy and picking up a quarterback later in your draft.

2 David Montgomery - Detroit Lions

A Jahmyr Gibbs takeover only hurts Montgomery's fantasy value

David Montgomery's 2023 season reeks of Jamaal Williams' 2022 season. Montgomery is by far a better back, but Williams went from the RB8 in 2022 with 17 rushing touchdowns to the RB61 in 2023. Montgomery is the better back and probably won't see the decline that Williams did, but it still feels like he's being overvalued even as the RB23. He's an easy fade with potential workhorse running backs like James Conner, Javonte Williams, Zack Moss, and Tony Pollard going after Montgomery.

Montgomery has been a productive fantasy running back, with a surprising 2023 season considering the addition of Gibbs. The problem with his 2024 value is that fantasy drafts are much deeper at the running back position, with players having similar ADPs and pass-catching upside, unlike Montgomery.

In the final eight games of the season, Montgomery averaged 11.8 PPG versus his 16.1 PPG in his first six games. There is an expectation that Gibbs will likely see more involvement in the Detroit Lions offense, which only hurts Montgomery's fantasy value.

This is a perfect example of a player worth drafting if he falls in fantasy drafts. Montgomery can be a solid RB3 on a fantasy team but doesn't have the upside of running backs being drafted around him. Montgomery is worth taking for his safe floor if he starts to fall two rounds.

3 Davante Adams - Las Vegas Raiders

Adams may be due for his first fantasy season outside the top-12 since 2019

Is Davante Adams the most obvious fade in fantasy football in 2024? For years, Adams was consistently a first-round fantasy football player, but now he might not be worth selecting within the first four rounds. Currently, Adams is being drafted as the WR9 at the beginning of the second round.

Adams no longer has the consistent output he did with Aaron Rodgers throwing to him or even from Derek Carr in 2022. He may have finished as the WR11 in 2023, but there's no guarantee that he will come close to that with Gardner Minshew or Aidan O'Connell as his quarterback.

In games where O'Connell started, Adams averaged 9.4 PPG. Considering O'Connell appears to have the edge in training camp over Minshew, that's not great news for his fantasy value this season. It's not like there aren't better options to select, considering how early Adams is going in fantasy drafts. Adams needs to fall quite a bit to make it worthwhile since there's some legitimate risk taking him early with his fantasy production last season with O'Connell throwing to him.

Ignore the name value of Adams and pass on him in your fantasy football drafts.

4 Stefon Diggs - Houston Texans

Diggs' trade to Houston is great for the Texans, bad for his fantasy value

It feels strange that Stefon Diggs won't be a first-round fantasy player in 2024, considering he's been a first-round lock over the last three years. Even Fantasy Pros is devaluing Diggs compared to previous years following his trade to the Houston Texans. This one is simple, though. There's too much competition in Houston for every wide receiver to be a fantasy star.

Realistically, the ball can only get thrown to one player at a time, and Diggs is now the newbie in town. Both Nico Collins and Tank Dell were excellent last year and should continue to see a heavy number of targets in this offense. That isn't even considering Dalton Schultz and Joe Mixon, who also should see a fair share of targets in this offense. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Houston, and it feels inevitable that Diggs will be one to suffer in fantasy.

Like Adams, there must be a fall in fantasy drafts before considering taking Diggs. He's being drafted as the WR19, which is lower than Adams but is still higher than many other wide receivers in better situations. Diggs will still provide some big games, but he won't have the same consistency he's had in fantasy football over the last three seasons.

5 David Njoku - Cleveland Browns

Njoku's TE6 in 2023 was an outlier compared to the rest of his career

Despite injuries to Deshaun Watson, David Njoku still managed to have a career year, finishing as the sixth-best tight end in fantasy football. Even with a healthy Watson, it is unlikely that Njoku would replicate that success following the addition of Jerry Jeudy and other young wide receivers, such as Cedric Tillman.

Njoku's 2023 season doesn't have many wrinkles from a fantasy perspective. From Week 7 on, he had at least six targets in every game, scored six touchdowns within that timeframe, and had at least 50 receiving yards in eight of 11 games. He was impressive, and now he's being drafted as the TE9. The problem is that Njoku has only finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end twice in his career: in 2023 and 2018.

The tight end position is thin, so your best bet is to draft a tight end earlier before you even need to consider taking Njoku. But there are several tight ends going after Njoku that have been more productive in fantasy football, while also being in better situations in 2024.

Stats and Fantasy Data provided by Pro Football Reference and Fantasy Pros, unless otherwise stated.